T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB), jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin d\u0131\u015f ticaret \u00fczerindeki etkilerini ele alan bir analiz yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Analiz, TCMB Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve Para Politikas\u0131 Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc’nden K\u0131demli Ekonomist Yasemin Barlas ile Yap\u0131sal Ekonomik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc’nden Ba\u015fuzman \u015eebnem O\u011fuz taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rland\u0131 ve Merkezin G\u00fcncesi blogunda payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Analizde, jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirleri arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesine bask\u0131 yapabilece\u011fi ifade edildi. 2026 \u015eubat ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayan ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131’n\u0131n etkisiyle T\u00fcrkiye’nin d\u0131\u015f ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131flamas\u0131 bekleniyordu. Ancak ikinci \u00e7eyrek verileri, enerji ithalat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen ihracat\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinin iyile\u015fti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f\u0131n enerji piyasalar\u0131ndaki etkileri analizde vurguland\u0131. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek verilerine g\u00f6re, Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %55,2, do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 ise %28,2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu art\u0131\u015fa paralel olarak, takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enerji ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %32,4 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi kaydedildi. Ancak, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fmenin, enerji ithalat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yava\u015flayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fi de ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f dengeyi belirlemedeki rol\u00fc ise daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiliyor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi ile net enerji ithalat\u0131 aras\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ili\u015fki bulunmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, cari i\u015flemler dengesinin bir\u00e7ok fakt\u00f6rden etkilendi\u011fi vurguland\u0131. 2022’deki Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131’nda enerji maliyetlerinin d\u0131\u015f denge \u00fczerindeki etkisi belirginken, mevcut d\u00f6nemde farkl\u0131 bir tablo ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte, enerji ithalat\u0131ndaki olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ra\u011fmen ihracat g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Mart ay\u0131nda Orta Do\u011fu \u00fclkelerine yap\u0131lan ihracatta ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik ihracatta bir toparlanma ya\u015fand\u0131. K\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerindeki yeniden y\u00f6nlenmelerin bu art\u0131\u015fta rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, savunma sanayisinin ihracata sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 destek de dikkat \u00e7ekti. Savunma sanayisinde yap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n, y\u00fcksek katma de\u011ferli \u00fcretimin ihracata katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Son d\u00f6rt y\u0131lda bu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn toplam ihracattaki pay\u0131 %4’e ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkisi, ihracattaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyir sayesinde dengelendi. \u0130\u00e7 talepteki zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ise ithalat kompozisyonunu de\u011fi\u015ftirerek d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesindeki iyile\u015fmeye katk\u0131da bulundu. Jeopolitik risklerin azalmas\u0131yla enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecinin, cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131, jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesine etkilerini de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi bir analiz yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine ra\u011fmen T\u00fcrkiye’nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2594,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"manset":[],"class_list":["post-2593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finans"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gastronomigundemi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2593","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gastronomigundemi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gastronomigundemi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gastronomigundemi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gastronomigundemi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2593"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gastronomigundemi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2593\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gastronomigundemi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gastronomigundemi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gastronomigundemi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gastronomigundemi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2593"},{"taxonomy":"manset","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gastronomigundemi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/manset?post=2593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}